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Extreme Events: Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series Analysis


Monday, Sept. 3
 9:00-12:30 M. Ghil "Differentiable dynamical systems and bifurcations"
14:00-16:00 S. Solomon "Agent-based models"
16:30-18:00 Initiation to the computer laboratory (P. Dumas, D. Kondrashov, O. Mestre, and H. Rust)

Tuesday, Sept. 4
  9:00-11:00 M. Ghil "Discrete dynamical systems (CAs, BDEs)"
11:30-12:30 P. Dumas "Macro-economic models"
14:00-16:00 H. Rust "Spectral analysis of stochastic processes"
 (see also the lecture notes)
16:30-18:30 Modeling laboratory - introduction to R (O. Mestre)

Wednesday, Sept. 5
 9:00-11:00 M. Ghil "Smooth’ time series – theory": part 1 and part 2
11:30-12:30 D. Kondrashov "Smooth time series – applications"

Thursday, Sept. 6
 9:00-10:30 E. Foufoula "Extreme events, heavy tails, and the generating processes: part 1 and part 2"
11:00-12:30 Ph. Naveau "Extreme value theory"
14:00-15:00 S. Solomon "Long tails from models"
15:00-16:00 H. Rust "Detection of long range dependence"
16:30-18:30 Time series laboratory (D. Kondrashov)

Friday, Sept. 7

 9:00-10:30 O. Mestre “Additive models applied to extremes: part 1 and part 2
11:00-12:30 P. Friederichs "Statistical downscaling of precipitation using extreme value theory"
14:00-16:00 Time series laboratory (D. Kondrashov and O. Mestre)
16:30-18:30 Modeling laboratory (P. Dumas)

Monday, Sept. 10
  9:00-12:30 F. D'Andrea "Extreme values in climate applications"
14:00-16:00 V. Kossobokov "Earthquake analysis and prediction: part 1 and part 2".
16:30-18:30 Time series laboratory (O. Mestre and H. Rust)
20:30-22:00 Round-table discussion: “Extremes, their analysis and modeling”

Tuesday, Sept. 11
  9:00-10:30 M. Radulian "Earthquakes in Vrancea"
11:00-12:30 D. Stanica "Earthquakes and landslides in the Carpathians"
14:00-16:00 Modeling laboratory (P. Dumas)
16:30-18:00 Concluding remarks

Background image: Hans Ulrich Niedermann  http://n-dimensional.de/