Modeling studies and comparison with observational
- Stalactite cyclone (29 Sep - 3 Oct 2016):
||Figure 1: (Left)
Flights tracks on 2 Oct 2016. (Upper right)
Simulated reflectivity by a Meso-NH simulation
(2.5-km resolution) forced by Arpege operational
analysis along the flight F7. (Lower right)
Measured reflectivity by the radar RASTA along
the flight F7.
The Flight F7 was
dedicated to the observation of the warm conveyor belt
ascending regions of the Stalactite cyclone. Different
simulations are performed with the Meso-NH mesoscale model
to assess the skills of the different parametrizations of
the model, in particular cloud microphysics, and its
impact on synoptic-scale dynamics.
- Scandinavian blocking (3 - 16 Oct 2016):
Figure 2: (Left) Spatial
correlations between the geopotential anomaly at a given
time provided by the Arpege operational analysis and the
geopotential anomalies of the 4 weather regimes. (Right)
geopotential anomaly of each weather regime.
Early October 2016 was marked by a transition toward the
Scandinavian blocking that last until the end of the field
campaign. This transition is closely related to the
development of the Stalactite cyclone. The ridge building
downstream of the cyclone allowed to bring low potential
vorticity values over Scandinavian region.
||Figure 3: Spatial
correlations between the geopotential anomalies
of the 10 members of the Arpege ensemble
forecasts and the geopotential anomalies of the
4 weather regimes.
Even though the transition
toward blocking can be anticipated by the ensemble
forecasts 5 days in advance, the intensity of the
anticyclonic anomaly is underestimated.
- Cut-off Sanchez (9 - 15 October 2016):